Fiscal Discipline and Budget Credibility as Preconditions for Results-Based Medium-Term Budgeting: Evidence from Uzbekistan

Results-based budgeting presupposes that approved allocations are executed broadly as planned and that medium-term expenditure ceilings are credible. This article examines whether Uzbekistan's fiscal framework meets these preconditions. It combines budget credibility indicators for 2021–2023 from the 2024 PEFA assessment with an accounting decomposition of public debt dynamics for 2024–2027 based on the IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2026) and the 2026 Article IV consultation. Aggregate expenditure outturns remained within 95–105 per cent of approved budgets in each year, but revenue outturns reached 110.3 and 112.7 per cent in 2021 and 2022, and the functional composition of expenditure deviated from the approved budget by 15.5 per cent in 2022. The decomposition shows that nominal GDP growth of 14–22 per cent reduced the debt ratio by 3.5–5.5 percentage points of GDP a year, more than offsetting consolidated budget deficits, while a positive stock-flow residual of 0.9–2.7 points indicates financing needs that are not captured by the consolidated budget balance. As disinflation lowers nominal growth, the deficit consistent with a stable debt ratio falls from 5.5 per cent of GDP in 2024 to roughly 2.0–2.9 per cent under long-run nominal growth of 8–12 per cent. The article argues that results-based budgeting should be embedded in binding medium-term ceilings, comprehensive coverage of operations outside the consolidated budget and stricter rules for in-year reallocation.