Publication Details
Abstract
Purpose: to estimate how resources affect the output of district medical associations and to forecast regional health resources to 2030 and provider performance to 2028. Methods: a Cobb–Douglas production function (n = 15), linear and exponential trend models evaluated with MAPE, a resource balance for 2030, DEA-based capacity analysis and scenario forecasting. Results: output elasticities with respect to beds and staff are 0.491 and 0.247 (R² = 0.878); their sum of 0.738 indicates decreasing returns to scale. By 2030 the population reaches 4.74 million and physicians 14.8 thousand (31.2 per 10,000), while nurse density falls from 78.2 to 76.4. Closing the efficiency gap would allow 82.9 thousand additional inpatients per year (23.0%) without new beds. In the target scenario the cost recovery ratio of a private clinic rises from 66.0% to 117.8% by 2028, whereas in the inertial scenario cumulated losses reach 2,445.2 million UZS.