Modeling the Impact of State Structural Policy on Long-Term Economic Growth in Uzbekistan: Sectoral Dynamics and Econometric Forecasts (2001–2030)

This study investigates the impact of state structural policies on long-term macroeconomic growth in the Republic of Uzbekistan by analyzing sectoral dynamics across agriculture, industry-construction, and services. Utilizing official statistical time-series data spanning 2001–2025, econometric modeling was conducted using Stata 17.0 and SPSS 29.0 software. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression results reveal that the services sector exhibits the highest output elasticity relative to GDP growth ( ), followed by industry and construction ( ), while agriculture demonstrates lower responsiveness ( ). Furthermore, employing Brown's double exponential smoothing model, sectoral and national GDP projections through 2030 indicate stable and consistent upward trajectories, forecasting national GDP to reach 3,106.5 trillion UZS ($248.5 billion) by 2030 with high explanatory power ( ). The empirical findings align with Chenery’s structural change theory, Lewis's dual-sector model, and endogenous growth frameworks, emphasizing the necessity of accelerating capital reallocation toward high-value-added services and industrial modernization to ensure sustainable economic resilience.