Integrated Assessment of Small Business Economic Potential and Quartile-Based Regional Development Strategies: Evidence from Namangan Region, Uzbekistan

This study develops and applies an integrated diagnostic approach to assess the economic potential of small businesses across the twelve administrative territories of Namangan Region, Uzbekistan. The assessment combines five dimensions—entrepreneurial activity, production capacity and intensity, investment, domestic-market and export performance, and activity efficiency—using min–max normalization and equal-weight aggregation on a 0–100 scale. The empirical framework relies primarily on comparable territorial indicators for 2024, supplemented by the 2024–2025 dynamics of newly established small enterprises and microfirms. An empirical quartile segmentation identifies three relative leaders (Namangan city, Yangiqo‘rg‘on and Uychi), three stable-middle territories (Norin, Namangan district and To‘raqo‘rg‘on), three developing territories (Uchqo‘rg‘on, Pop and Kosonsoy), and three relatively constrained territories (Chortoq, Mingbuloq and Chust). The group thresholds are Q1 = 25.72, Q2 = 30.44 and Q3 = 34.18 points, calculated from the reported two-decimal index series. The leader group averages 48.30 points, compared with 23.27 in the constrained group. A sensitivity check using alternative weights yields Spearman’s rank correlation of 0.993, indicating high stability of the ordering under the tested perturbation. The contribution is a two-stage decision framework linking a territory’s relative quartile position to its weakest subindex and thus to differentiated policy instruments rather than uniform support. The index is a comparative diagnostic, not a causal estimate or a direct measure of labour productivity.