Forecast and Scenarios for the Development of Uzbekistan’s Information Services Market Until 2030

The article develops a forecast of Uzbekistan’s exports of information and communication technology (ICT) services until 2030. The forecast is based on official statistical data for 2015-2025 and comprises four scenarios: inertial (21.6% per year), baseline (28.0%), target (35.1%) and optimistic (45.0%). According to the calculations, achieving the announced target of USD 5 billion requires annual growth of 35.1% in 2025–2030. The scenarios are assessed in connection with the human resource constraint: at the current level of productivity, the target scenario requires 326.9 thousand specialists, whereas if productivity doubles, 189.4 thousand specialists would suffice. Sensitivity analysis showed that labour supply is the strongest constraint. Based on the forecast results, it is recommended that the target parameters be revised.