Forecast and Scenarios of Sustainable Development of Agriculture in the Republic of Karakalpakstan up to 2030

The article develops a forecast of agricultural development in the Republic of Karakalpakstan up to 2030. The forecast is based on official statistical data for 2015–2025 using two methods – scenario analysis of the real growth index and trend extrapolation by product type. Three scenarios are substantiated: inertial (3.7 % per year), baseline (4.0 %) and innovative (5.5 %). According to the calculations, under the inertial scenario the real volume in 2030 will be 1.20 times that of 2025, and 1.31 times under the innovative scenario. Trend analysis by product type shows the highest growth for eggs and potatoes (1.30–1.31 times) and virtually no growth for grain (0.99 times). The conditions and risks of implementing the scenarios are assessed.