The Global Circularity Paradox: Reconciling the Value Gap with the Structural Logic of the Circular Economy

This article examines an apparent paradox at the heart of the global transition to a circular economy: despite a growing number of policy commitments and corporate initiatives, the measured global circularity metric has declined in recent years. The aim of the study is to explain this paradox through the structural logic of the circular economy and to quantify the economic cost of the prevailing linear model using the recently introduced Value Gap concept. Drawing on a comparative analysis of secondary data from leading international reports, the study finds that recycling capacity, although growing in absolute terms, expands more slowly than primary raw-material consumption, while a substantial share of extracted materials becomes locked in long-lived assets. The analysis shows that the largest share of avoidable economic loss – 39.4 percent – occurs at the end-of-life stage, confirming the economic priority of collection and recycling loops. A further disaggregation by material type reveals that circular potential is bounded by the physico-chemical nature of materials, ranging from 23.4 percent for metals to 3.8 percent for fossil energy carriers. The findings imply that the circular mechanism must be treated as a systemic whole rather than reduced to the recycling stage alone.