Publication Details
Abstract
Historically, the Niger Delta region of Nigeria has been plagued by militancy, crude oil theft and socio-political instability that have negatively affected Nigerian economic interest and crude oil production. This study explores the relationship between the Presidential Amnesty Programme (PAP) and regional stability between 2008 and 2024, which is analysed both quantitatively with crude oil production and militant activity data and qualitatively through interviews and focus group discussions. The results show that crude oil production has increased from 1.77 million bpd before the proclamation of amnesty in 2009 to 2.46 million bpd in 2010 and there was a decrease in violent incidents. The programme's short-term impact illustrates its ability to deter large-scale militancy and re-create economic activity. But with the recent uptick in militant activities, oil theft, and local conflicts, including the Okuama/Okoloba crisis in 2024, post-amnesty data reveals production fluctuations down to 1.80 million bpd in 2016 and 1.47 million bpd in 2023. Though these results suggest that the PAP is effective in the short-term, long-term security and sustainable economic gains are limited by structural grievances, lack of community participation and environmental issues. The study highlights the need for comprehensive socio-economic, governance and environmental interventions to reinforce the positive results of the PAP and to maintain lasting stability in the Niger Delta.